IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INFRASTRUCTURE LONGEVITY: PREDICTIVE MODELING OF STRUCTURAL DEGRADATION IN COASTAL REGIONS

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on the longevity of coastal infrastructure by evaluating the degradation rates of common construction materials under varying climate scenarios. Using predictive modeling and Monte Carlo simulations, we assess the accelerated degradation of materials such as concrete, steel, asphalt, and wood in response to environmental stressors like sea-level rise, temperature fluctuations, and increased storm frequency. Research indicates that infrastructure elements which face severe temperature conditions suffer such extensive deterioration that their lifespan shortens by more than 40%. In this process concrete and steel materials endure maximum degradation.  High-risk coastal infrastructure repair costs will escalate because of storm surges and flooding so total expenditures will increase by 20–30 percent.  Models indicate that coastal infrastructure suffers from two main degradation factors including storm frequency and rising sea-levels.  The study provides critical details for urban designers along with government lawmakers who need information on resilient infrastructure design patterns.  Future maintenance costs of infrastructures positioned in vulnerable coastal regions can be lowered through lifetime climate assessment since this method reduces exposure to future threats and maintenance expenses.